Statistical projections, recorded game logs and empirical threshold estimates. Model Projection Only.
NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Derrick Henry
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION93.5
Season average 93.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 73.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 89.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 68.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 144.0 |
Empirical distribution: 144.0, 68.0, 89.0, 73.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Derrick Henry
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION22.3
Season average 22.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing attempts |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 23.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 26.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 16.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 24.0 |
Empirical distribution: 24.0, 16.0, 26.0, 23.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Derrick Henry
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION11.0
Season average 11.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 6.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 19.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 19.0 |
Empirical distribution: 19.0, 19.0, 0.0, 6.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Derrick Henry
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.8
Season average 1.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Derrick Henry
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY100.0%
Season average 1.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 3.0 |
Empirical distribution: 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Mark Andrews
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION37.3
Season average 37.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 27.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 24.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 49.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 49.0 |
Empirical distribution: 49.0, 49.0, 24.0, 27.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Mark Andrews
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.5
Season average 4.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 6.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 4.0 |
Empirical distribution: 4.0, 6.0, 3.0, 5.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Mark Andrews
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%
Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Passing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION241.8
Season average 241.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Passing yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 222.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 186.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 235.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 324.0 |
Empirical distribution: 324.0, 235.0, 186.0, 222.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Passing touchdowns · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.5
Season average 1.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Passing touchdowns |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION36.0
Season average 36.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 20.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 50.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 34.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 40.0 |
Empirical distribution: 40.0, 34.0, 50.0, 20.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.8
Season average 4.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing attempts |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 6.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 7.0 |
Empirical distribution: 7.0, 4.0, 6.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%
Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Olamide Zaccheaus
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.3
Season average 4.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 9.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 5.0 |
Empirical distribution: 5.0, 3.0, 9.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Olamide Zaccheaus
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.0
Season average 1.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Olamide Zaccheaus
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Kyle Pitts
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION16.8
Season average 16.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 47.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 15.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 15.0, 5.0, 47.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Kyle Pitts
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.3
Season average 1.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Kyle Pitts
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Brian Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION48.5
Season average 48.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 62.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 50.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 51.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 31.0 |
Empirical distribution: 31.0, 51.0, 50.0, 62.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Brian Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION11.0
Season average 11.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing attempts |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 14.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 10.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 11.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 9.0 |
Empirical distribution: 9.0, 11.0, 10.0, 14.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Brian Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION5.3
Season average 5.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 16.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 5.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Brian Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.8
Season average 0.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Brian Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY50.0%
Season average 1.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Bijan Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION123.5
Season average 123.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 145.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 194.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 72.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 83.0 |
Empirical distribution: 83.0, 72.0, 194.0, 145.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Bijan Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION21.3
Season average 21.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing attempts |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 19.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 29.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 16.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 21.0 |
Empirical distribution: 21.0, 16.0, 29.0, 19.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Bijan Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION30.0
Season average 30.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 19.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 9.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 90.0 |
Empirical distribution: 90.0, 9.0, 19.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Bijan Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.5
Season average 3.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 8.0 |
Empirical distribution: 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Bijan Robinson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY75.0%
Season average 1.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
LaJohntay Wester
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION7.3
Season average 7.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 14.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 15.0 |
Empirical distribution: 15.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
LaJohntay Wester
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.8
Season average 0.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 2.0 |
Empirical distribution: 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
LaJohntay Wester
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Rashod Bateman
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION42.8
Season average 42.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 46.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 37.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 88.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 88.0, 37.0, 46.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Rashod Bateman
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION2.8
Season average 2.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 7.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Rashod Bateman
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%
Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Drake London
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION92.5
Season average 92.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 96.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 194.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 51.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 29.0 |
Empirical distribution: 29.0, 51.0, 194.0, 96.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Drake London
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION5.0
Season average 5.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 9.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 4.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 2.0 |
Empirical distribution: 2.0, 4.0, 9.0, 5.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Drake London
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Jahan Dotson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION23.8
Season average 23.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 54.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 11.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 11.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 19.0 |
Empirical distribution: 19.0, 11.0, 11.0, 54.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Jahan Dotson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.5
Season average 1.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Jahan Dotson
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%
Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Chris Blair
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.5
Season average 1.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 6.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Chris Blair
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.3
Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Chris Blair
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Justice Hill
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION15.0
Season average 15.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 3.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 33.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 6.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 18.0 |
Empirical distribution: 18.0, 6.0, 33.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Justice Hill
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.5
Season average 3.5 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Rushing attempts |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 6.0 |
Empirical distribution: 6.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Justice Hill
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION11.0
Season average 11.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 22.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 12.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 10.0 |
Empirical distribution: 10.0, 12.0, 0.0, 22.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Justice Hill
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.3
Season average 1.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.0 |
Empirical distribution: 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Justice Hill
BAL vs ATL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Zachariah Branch
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION7.8
Season average 7.8 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receiving yards |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 10.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 7.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 14.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 14.0, 7.0, 10.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Zachariah Branch
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.3
Season average 1.3 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Receptions |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 2.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY
Zachariah Branch
ATL vs BAL · 10/11/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT
EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%
Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games
Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.
Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.
Recent game logs & distribution
| Date | Anytime touchdown |
|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 0.0 |
Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.
Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT
Passing yards · Passing touchdowns · Rushing yards · Rushing attempts · Receiving yards · Receptions · Anytime touchdown
Preliminary projections where recorded samples meet minimum requirements.