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South Ark Daily Picks / Player Prop Projections

Player Prop Projections

Statistical projections, recorded game logs and empirical threshold estimates. Model Projection Only.

College FootballNFL

Player models vs cached sportsbook lines

Model research only. Historical frequencies are descriptive, unvalidated and not calibrated forecasts. Ties are pushes; the price comparison excludes pushes. No positive-EV or betting recommendation is established.

No verified fresh player-line/model matches. Missing inputs remain unavailable.

Preliminary player research

These are descriptive statistical baselines. Injuries, active roster status, expected role and opponent adjustments are unverified. Empirical samples are small and do not establish calibrated betting probabilities. Any separately displayed sportsbook snapshots are independent observations; model estimates remain preliminary.

620 statistical projections

NFL · Passing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Rodgers

PIT vs IND · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION249.8

Season average 249.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing yards
2026-10-01299.0
2026-09-27292.0
2026-09-20187.0
2026-09-13221.0

Empirical distribution: 221.0, 187.0, 292.0, 299.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing touchdowns · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Rodgers

PIT vs IND · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.8

Season average 1.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing touchdowns
2026-10-013.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-131.0

Empirical distribution: 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Rodgers

PIT vs IND · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.0

Season average 3.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-010.0
2026-09-2710.0
2026-09-205.0
2026-09-13-3.0

Empirical distribution: -3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Rodgers

PIT vs IND · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.8

Season average 1.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-010.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-133.0

Empirical distribution: 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Rodgers

PIT vs IND · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-010.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kirk Cousins

LV vs NE · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION256.5

Season average 256.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing yards
2026-10-04365.0
2026-09-27248.0
2026-09-20253.0
2026-09-13160.0

Empirical distribution: 160.0, 253.0, 248.0, 365.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing touchdowns · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kirk Cousins

LV vs NE · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION2.8

Season average 2.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing touchdowns
2026-10-042.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-203.0
2026-09-133.0

Empirical distribution: 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kirk Cousins

LV vs NE · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.0

Season average 3.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-204.0
2026-09-135.0

Empirical distribution: 5.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kirk Cousins

LV vs NE · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Mike Evans

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION53.3

Season average 53.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0476.0
2026-09-2734.0
2026-09-2054.0
2026-09-1049.0

Empirical distribution: 49.0, 54.0, 34.0, 76.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Mike Evans

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.3

Season average 4.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-045.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-203.0
2026-09-106.0

Empirical distribution: 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Mike Evans

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY50.0%

Season average 0.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-101.0

Empirical distribution: 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Stefon Diggs

WAS vs NYG · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION42.5

Season average 42.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0435.0
2026-09-2733.0
2026-09-2047.0
2026-09-1355.0

Empirical distribution: 55.0, 47.0, 33.0, 35.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Stefon Diggs

WAS vs NYG · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.5

Season average 4.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-045.0
2026-09-274.0
2026-09-205.0
2026-09-134.0

Empirical distribution: 4.0, 5.0, 4.0, 5.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Stefon Diggs

WAS vs NYG · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY50.0%

Season average 0.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-202.0
2026-09-131.0

Empirical distribution: 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Ameer Abdullah

JAX vs PHI · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 AM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION11.3

Season average 11.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-272.0
2026-09-2011.0
2026-09-1332.0

Empirical distribution: 32.0, 11.0, 2.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Ameer Abdullah

JAX vs PHI · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 AM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION2.5

Season average 2.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-203.0
2026-09-134.0

Empirical distribution: 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Ameer Abdullah

JAX vs PHI · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 AM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.5

Season average 0.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-202.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Ameer Abdullah

JAX vs PHI · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 AM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.5

Season average 0.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-131.0

Empirical distribution: 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Ameer Abdullah

JAX vs PHI · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 AM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kalif Raymond

CHI vs GB · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION55.0

Season average 55.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-046.0
2026-09-2890.0
2026-09-2040.0
2026-09-1384.0

Empirical distribution: 84.0, 40.0, 90.0, 6.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kalif Raymond

CHI vs GB · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION5.3

Season average 5.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-042.0
2026-09-286.0
2026-09-205.0
2026-09-138.0

Empirical distribution: 8.0, 5.0, 6.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Kalif Raymond

CHI vs GB · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%

Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-281.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Hunter Henry

NE vs LV · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION33.3

Season average 33.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0462.0
2026-09-275.0
2026-09-2040.0
2026-09-0926.0

Empirical distribution: 26.0, 40.0, 5.0, 62.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Hunter Henry

NE vs LV · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.0

Season average 3.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-045.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-203.0
2026-09-093.0

Empirical distribution: 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 5.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Hunter Henry

NE vs LV · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-090.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jared Goff

DET vs ARI · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION303.5

Season average 303.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing yards
2026-10-04412.0
2026-09-27269.0
2026-09-17327.0
2026-09-13206.0

Empirical distribution: 206.0, 327.0, 269.0, 412.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing touchdowns · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jared Goff

DET vs ARI · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION2.3

Season average 2.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing touchdowns
2026-10-041.0
2026-09-272.0
2026-09-174.0
2026-09-132.0

Empirical distribution: 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jared Goff

DET vs ARI · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.8

Season average 3.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-276.0
2026-09-177.0
2026-09-132.0

Empirical distribution: 2.0, 7.0, 6.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jared Goff

DET vs ARI · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION2.3

Season average 2.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-274.0
2026-09-173.0
2026-09-132.0

Empirical distribution: 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jared Goff

DET vs ARI · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-170.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs DET · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION204.5

Season average 204.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing yards
2026-10-04166.0
2026-09-27280.0
2026-09-2095.0
2026-09-13277.0

Empirical distribution: 277.0, 95.0, 280.0, 166.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Passing touchdowns · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs DET · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.5

Season average 1.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DatePassing touchdowns
2026-10-042.0
2026-09-272.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-131.0

Empirical distribution: 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs DET · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION10.8

Season average 10.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-0418.0
2026-09-274.0
2026-09-207.0
2026-09-1314.0

Empirical distribution: 14.0, 7.0, 4.0, 18.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs DET · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.8

Season average 3.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-044.0
2026-09-274.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-136.0

Empirical distribution: 6.0, 1.0, 4.0, 4.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs DET · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%

Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Christian McCaffrey

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION54.5

Season average 54.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-0452.0
2026-09-2775.0
2026-09-2023.0
2026-09-1068.0

Empirical distribution: 68.0, 23.0, 75.0, 52.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Christian McCaffrey

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION12.5

Season average 12.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-0415.0
2026-09-2715.0
2026-09-2010.0
2026-09-1010.0

Empirical distribution: 10.0, 10.0, 15.0, 15.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Christian McCaffrey

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION30.5

Season average 30.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0418.0
2026-09-2741.0
2026-09-2043.0
2026-09-1020.0

Empirical distribution: 20.0, 43.0, 41.0, 18.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Christian McCaffrey

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.0

Season average 4.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-043.0
2026-09-274.0
2026-09-204.0
2026-09-105.0

Empirical distribution: 5.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Christian McCaffrey

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY75.0%

Season average 1.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-041.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-202.0
2026-09-100.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

George Kittle

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION61.0

Season average 61.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0470.0
2026-09-2782.0
2026-09-2080.0
2026-09-1012.0

Empirical distribution: 12.0, 80.0, 82.0, 70.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

George Kittle

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION4.0

Season average 4.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-044.0
2026-09-276.0
2026-09-204.0
2026-09-102.0

Empirical distribution: 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 4.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

George Kittle

SF vs SEA · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY75.0%

Season average 1.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-041.0
2026-09-272.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-100.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Jones

MIN vs NO · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION74.3

Season average 74.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-0494.0
2026-09-2758.0
2026-09-20105.0
2026-09-1340.0

Empirical distribution: 40.0, 105.0, 58.0, 94.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Jones

MIN vs NO · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION18.0

Season average 18.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-0420.0
2026-09-2717.0
2026-09-2023.0
2026-09-1312.0

Empirical distribution: 12.0, 23.0, 17.0, 20.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Jones

MIN vs NO · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION17.0

Season average 17.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0434.0
2026-09-2734.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 34.0, 34.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Jones

MIN vs NO · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION2.3

Season average 2.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-044.0
2026-09-275.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 4.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Aaron Jones

MIN vs NO · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%

Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-131.0

Empirical distribution: 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Samaje Perine

CIN vs MIA · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION10.5

Season average 10.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing yards
2026-10-047.0
2026-09-279.0
2026-09-206.0
2026-09-1320.0

Empirical distribution: 20.0, 6.0, 9.0, 7.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Rushing attempts · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Samaje Perine

CIN vs MIA · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.3

Season average 3.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateRushing attempts
2026-10-043.0
2026-09-273.0
2026-09-202.0
2026-09-135.0

Empirical distribution: 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Samaje Perine

CIN vs MIA · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION12.8

Season average 12.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-275.0
2026-09-2016.0
2026-09-1330.0

Empirical distribution: 30.0, 16.0, 5.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Samaje Perine

CIN vs MIA · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION1.3

Season average 1.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-133.0

Empirical distribution: 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Samaje Perine

CIN vs MIA · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-130.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Mack Hollins

NE vs LV · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION52.3

Season average 52.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-0453.0
2026-09-2787.0
2026-09-2018.0
2026-09-0951.0

Empirical distribution: 51.0, 18.0, 87.0, 53.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Mack Hollins

NE vs LV · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION3.8

Season average 3.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-043.0
2026-09-276.0
2026-09-202.0
2026-09-094.0

Empirical distribution: 4.0, 2.0, 6.0, 3.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Mack Hollins

NE vs LV · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY0.0%

Season average 0.0 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-270.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-090.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receiving yards · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Eric Saubert

SEA vs SF · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.8

Season average 0.8 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceiving yards
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-2713.0
2026-09-20-10.0
2026-09-090.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, -10.0, 13.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Receptions · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Eric Saubert

SEA vs SF · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

STATISTICAL PROJECTION0.5

Season average 0.5 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateReceptions
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-201.0
2026-09-090.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

NFL · Anytime touchdown · MODEL PROJECTION ONLY

Eric Saubert

SEA vs SF · 10/11/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT

EMPIRICAL TD FREQUENCY25.0%

Season average 0.3 · sample 4 games

Choose a threshold above to examine observed exceedance frequency.

Opponent statistic: unavailable; no invented adjustment.

Recent game logs & distribution
DateAnytime touchdown
2026-10-040.0
2026-09-271.0
2026-09-200.0
2026-09-090.0

Empirical distribution: 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0. Equal mass on recorded observations; not a fitted outcome distribution.

Recent mean shrunk toward season mean with two pseudo-games. Preliminary statistical estimate; availability, role and opponent adjustments unverified. SADP-player-empirical-1.0 · computed 10/8/2026, 2:09:48 PM CDT

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NFL

Passing yards · Passing touchdowns · Rushing yards · Rushing attempts · Receiving yards · Receptions · Anytime touchdown

Preliminary projections where recorded samples meet minimum requirements.

Sportsbook player prop lines

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